Worldview
2026-09-18 06:35 UTC Pre-MarketⓘCash market has not opened yet. Equity and rates panels may reflect futures or pre-open indications, not a full live cash session.
War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
战争供给冲击的滞后重定价
供应冲击与高利率压力仍在加深，但低波动率、收窄的滞后信用利差和上涨股指表明市场仍处于宏观冲击先行、广泛风险重定价尚未到来的脆弱窗口。关键背离是：供应冲击与高利率并未压低风险资产，股指和比特币同步上涨，而波动率维持低位。
29 signals·7 threads·4 patterns·4 open predictions
baseline 55escalation 30de-escalation 15
Tension
供应冲击与高利率并未压低风险资产，股指和比特币同步上涨，而波动率维持低位。
这不是冲击消失，而是宏观后果尚未被股票与波动率充分计入；股指和波动率均为盘前单点观测，缺少当日盘中路径。
Contradictionsfrom threads
⚡
黄金上涨并接近近期高位，但股票和比特币也上涨，避险与风险偏好信号同时增强。
黄金走强可能更多反映通胀、货币与地缘风险溢价，而非单纯的全面避险；仅凭该组合不能判定系统性去风险。
⚡
社交平台情绪转向恐惧，但盘前股票市场继续上涨且波动率没有同步抬升。
散户叙事与市场价格暂时背离，可能反映情绪对政策与战争新闻更敏感，也可能预示尚未进入价格的尾部担忧。
⚡
动量及集中度代理单日走强，但等权相对市值加权代理继续走弱，市场上涨的广度基础偏窄。
这些截至9月17日的滞后价格比率仅支持集中领导与弱广度并存，不能升级为拥挤交易平仓或广泛去杠杆判断。
Contradiction topologyfrom threads
D1Divergence 1·0.75→
D2Divergence 2·0.75→
Worst signals · 2026-09-07 — 2026-09-11from change
Worst:X Narrative 0%·n2Polymarket Conflict 50%·n1Exa Us-Treasury-Long-End-Term-Premium-Fiscal-Risk 50%·n1WTI 75%·n2Exa Strait-Of-Hormuz-Maritime-Transit-Risk 75%·n2
Self
normal · 50% over 10 reviews
Calibrationfrom self
Temperature
normal
Accuracy 50% (10 reviews)
101 correct40 partial112 wrong253 reviews · 48% strict hit
Domain Accuracy
75%
Energy Supply Disruption
hot · 10 rev
70%
Geopolitical
warm · 10 rev
70%
Volatility
warm · 10 rev
60%
Crude Oil
warm · 10 rev
55%
Prediction Markets
normal · 10 rev
55%
Rates
normal · 10 rev
45%
Social Media Signals
normal · 10 rev
25%
Safe Havens
cool · 4 rev
Attention
×0.70×1.00×1.30
Crypto ×0.85
Rates ×0.87
Commodity ×0.89
Volatility ×1.02
12 domains neutral at ×1.00 — collapsed
Peripheral Vision
3 core · on the regime
corefed inflation policy repricing risk
emergingus treasury deficit duration risk
emergingai capex cloud financing risk
emergingchina demand policy commodity risk
quota 2 · met
Regime Standing
recovered ⟲
strikes
3 wrong in a row impeaches
window
30% floor
no reviews in the 7-day window
Surprise
low
0% · 0 violated · 1 confirmed
37 live·37 total·8 active·29 dormant
16 error / 19 success / 2 regime
×
error reddit sentiment ×1.00 0% (15)
auto verified
基准: 2026-06-12 SPX=7,444.3 Reddit=unknown; 2026-06-15: SPX=7,527.3 (+1.1%)
✓
success wti supply disruption ×1.10 63% (92)
auto verified
基准: 2026-05-26 WTI=93.62; 2026-05-27: WTI=89.41 (波动4.5%)
✓
success x anomaly vix ×1.10 77% (13)
Success from review
✓
success vix x narrative ×1.10 62% (29)
auto verified
基准: 2026-06-23 NDX=29,714.5; 2026-06-24: NDX=29,886.8 (+0.6%)
Energy Supply Disruption
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Supply Disruption
signal id: supply_disruption
display label: Supply Disruption
0.87 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=40 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
Supply Disruption 0.87
Exa Strait-Of-Hormuz-Maritime-Transit-Risk
signal id: exa_strait-of-hormuz-maritime-transit-risk
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: strait-of-hormuz-maritime-transit-risk
0.53 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=2 · provisional
weekly shift: 0.50 → 0.53
Exa Strait-Of-Hormuz-Maritime-Transit-Risk 0.53
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
X Anomaly
signal id: x_anomaly
source: X / social narrative layer
0.86 reliability weight
role: diagnostic
category: Social Media Signals
reviewed samples: n=23 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
X Anomaly 0.86
X Narrative
signal id: x_narrative
source: X / social narrative layer
0.46 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Social Media Signals
reviewed samples: n=52 · mature
weekly shift: 0.59 → 0.49
X Narrative 0.46
Volatility
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
VIX
signal id: vix
display label: VIX
0.81 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Volatility
reviewed samples: n=59 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
VIX 0.81
Crude Oil
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
WTI
signal id: wti
display label: WTI
0.79 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Crude Oil
reviewed samples: n=84 · mature
weekly shift: 0.78 → 0.82
WTI 0.79
Brent
signal id: brent
display label: Brent
0.60 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Crude Oil
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
Brent 0.60
Exa Global-Oil-Supply-Price-Dislocation
signal id: exa_global-oil-supply-price-dislocation
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: global-oil-supply-price-dislocation
0.56 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Crude Oil
reviewed samples: n=6 · developing
weekly shift: 0.54 → 0.57
Exa Global-Oil-Supply-Price-Dislocation 0.56
Prediction Markets
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Polymarket Conflict
signal id: polymarket_conflict
source: Polymarket signal bucket
0.74 reliability weight
role: event-pricing
category: Prediction Markets
reviewed samples: n=56 · mature
weekly shift: 0.74 → 0.75
Polymarket Conflict 0.74
Polymarket Economy
signal id: polymarket_economy
source: Polymarket signal bucket
0.55 reliability weight
role: event-pricing
category: Prediction Markets
reviewed samples: n=18 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
Polymarket Economy 0.55
Geopolitical
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Geopolitical Escalation
signal id: geopolitical_escalation
display label: Geopolitical Escalation
0.70 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Geopolitical
reviewed samples: n=73 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
Geopolitical Escalation 0.70
Exa Crossvalidated
signal id: exa_crossvalidated
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: crossvalidated
0.63 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Geopolitical
reviewed samples: n=23 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Crossvalidated 0.63
Positioning
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
COT Positioning
signal id: cta_positioning
display label: COT Positioning
0.60 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Positioning
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
COT Positioning 0.60
Equity Indices
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
SPX
signal id: spx
display label: SPX
0.60 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Equity Indices
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
SPX 0.60
NDX
signal id: ndx
display label: NDX
0.50 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Equity Indices
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
NDX 0.50
RUT
signal id: rut
display label: RUT
0.50 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Equity Indices
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
RUT 0.50
DJI
signal id: dji
display label: DJI
0.40 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Equity Indices
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
DJI 0.40
Shipping Logistics
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Exa Panama-Canal-Diverted-Trade-Logistics-Risk
signal id: exa_panama-canal-diverted-trade-logistics-risk
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: panama-canal-diverted-trade-logistics-risk
0.52 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Shipping Logistics
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: 0.50 → 0.52
Exa Panama-Canal-Diverted-Trade-Logistics-Risk 0.52
Rates
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Exa Japan-Yields-Yen-Global-Duration-Spillover
signal id: exa_japan-yields-yen-global-duration-spillover
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: japan-yields-yen-global-duration-spillover
0.51 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=2 · provisional
weekly shift: 0.50 → 0.51
Exa Japan-Yields-Yen-Global-Duration-Spillover 0.51
10Y
signal id: us10y
display label: 10Y
0.50 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
10Y 0.50
2s10s
signal id: spread_2s10s
display label: 2s10s
0.50 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
2s10s 0.50
Exa Fed-Inflation-Policy-Repricing-Risk
signal id: exa_fed-inflation-policy-repricing-risk
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: fed-inflation-policy-repricing-risk
0.50 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Fed-Inflation-Policy-Repricing-Risk 0.50
Yields (agg)
signal id: yields
display label: Yields (agg)
0.49 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=13 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
Yields (agg) 0.49
2Y
signal id: us2y
display label: 2Y
0.40 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
2Y 0.40
3M
signal id: us3m
display label: 3M
0.30 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
3M 0.30
Credit
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
HYG
signal id: hyg_price
display label: HYG
0.50 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Credit
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
HYG 0.50
Safe Havens
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
GOLD
signal id: gold
display label: GOLD
0.50 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Safe Havens
reviewed samples: n=4 · developing
weekly shift: no material move
GOLD 0.50
Natural Gas
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
NatGas
signal id: natgas
display label: NatGas
0.40 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Natural Gas
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
NatGas 0.40
Equity Fundamentals
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Analyst Consensus
signal id: analyst_forecast
display label: Analyst Consensus
0.40 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Equity Fundamentals
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
Analyst Consensus 0.40
Open predictionsfrom stakes
20260915-00155%due today
FOMC 窗口内（到 2026-09-18 收盘）重定价走久期腿、不走信用腿：10Y 至少一个收盘 ≥5.00%（或 TLT 收盘 <80.30），同时 VIX 收盘不破 20、HY OAS 相对 9/11 的 265bp 扩幅 <15bp（收盘 <280bp）。失败条件：VIX 收盘 >20 或 HY OAS ≥280（滞后重定价转为广泛重定价），或 10Y 全程收盘 <5.00% 且 TLT 收盘全程 ≥80.30（久期腿被吸收、根本没有重定价）。
certainty 55% · weight-context none · reviewability medium
Synthesis 1
20260917-00151%war_supply_shock_lagged_repricing2026-09-22
能源与利率已经充分发出滞胀警报，但股票、波动率和大部分信用渠道仍表现为延后计价，这种分离正是当前机制延续的核心证据，也是未来24至48小时最易断裂之处。
certainty 51% · urgency 29% · activation 6% · weight-context none · role-warning role · missing confirmation · proprio ×1.00 · surprise ×1.00 · reviewability medium · source 2026-09-17
Auto 2
20260911-00242%due today
Polymarket高放量事件“Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept”1周内概率变动超过10个百分点。
certainty 42% · weight-context polymarket_conflict 0.75 · polymarket_economy 0.54 · proprio ×1.00 · surprise ×1.00 · reviewability low · source 2026-09-11 · judgment gpt-5.6-sol/medium · verifier pm_volume
20260917-00240%2026-09-20
新叙事“iran, china”在接下来3天中至少2天保持在X top-5叙事。
certainty 40% · weight-context x_narrative 0.46 · proprio ×1.00 · surprise ×1.00 · reviewability low · source 2026-09-17 · judgment gpt-5.6-sol/medium · verifier narrative_persistence
Growth
War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
Memoryfrom change
196
2026-08-19War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverX Narrative +0.10
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events6
20+210
2026-08-20War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverX Narrative +0.10
births / deaths+2 / −0
fore events10
215
2026-08-21War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverX Narrative +0.10
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events5
225
2026-08-22War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverX Narrative +0.10
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events5
23
2026-08-23War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverX Narrative +0.10
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events0
24···
2026-08-24War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverX Narrative +0.10
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events3
255
2026-08-25War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverX Narrative +0.10
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events5
26+25
2026-08-26War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverX Narrative +0.10
births / deaths+2 / −0
fore events5
275
2026-08-27War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverX Narrative +0.05
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events5
288
2026-08-28War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverWTI +0.03
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events8
294
2026-08-29War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverWTI +0.06
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events4
30···
2026-08-30War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverWTI +0.06
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events3
31···
2026-08-31War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverWTI +0.06
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events3
19
2026-09-01War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverX Narrative -0.05
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events9
26
2026-09-02War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverX Narrative -0.05
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events6
36
2026-09-03War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverWTI +0.05
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events6
4+2−45
2026-09-04War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverWTI +0.06
births / deaths+2 / −4
fore events5
54
2026-09-05War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverWTI +0.06
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events4
6·
2026-09-06War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing switched
top moverWTI +0.06
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events1
War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
7+2−1
2026-09-07War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverExa Global-Oil-Supply-Price-Dislocation +0.07
births / deaths+2 / −1
fore events0
8··
2026-09-08War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverX Narrative -0.10
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events2
95
2026-09-09War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverX Narrative -0.10
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events5
107
2026-09-10War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverX Narrative -0.15
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events7
11+27
2026-09-11War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverX Narrative -0.10
births / deaths+2 / −0
fore events7
125
2026-09-12War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverX Narrative -0.10
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events5
13·
2026-09-13War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverX Narrative -0.08
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events1
146
2026-09-14War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverWTI +0.06
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events6
154
2026-09-15War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverWTI +0.06
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events4
16·
2026-09-16War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverX Anomaly +0.05
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events1
174
2026-09-17War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverX Narrative -0.08
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events4
186
2026-09-18War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverX Narrative -0.13
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events6
tap a day for its keyframe
Growthfrom change
2026-09-11
+ born
Exa Panama-Canal-Diverted-Trade-Logistics-Risk
+ born
Exa Fed-Inflation-Policy-Repricing-Risk
this week
·
Weekly trend: 战争供应冲击下的滞后风险重定价
Δ
X Narrative
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.59→0.49
WTI
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.78→0.82
Exa Strait-Of-Hormuz-Maritime-Transit-Risk
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.50→0.53
Exa Global-Oil-Supply-Price-Dislocation
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.54→0.57
Exa Panama-Canal-Diverted-Trade-Logistics-Risk
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.50→0.52
Polymarket Conflict
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.74→0.75
Exa Us-Treasury-Long-End-Term-Premium-Fiscal-Risk
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.52→0.53
Exa Japan-Yields-Yen-Global-Duration-Spillover
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.50→0.51
·
Best:Exa Ai-Corporate-Borrowing-Neutral-Rate-Risk 100%·n1Exa Fed-Inflation-Policy-Repricing-Risk 100%·n1Exa Panama-Canal-Diverted-Trade-Logistics-Risk 100%·n1Exa Global-Oil-Supply-Price-Dislocation 75%·n2Exa Japan-Yields-Yen-Global-Duration-Spillover 75%·n2Worst:X Narrative 0%·n2Polymarket Conflict 50%·n1Exa Us-Treasury-Long-End-Term-Premium-Fiscal-Risk 50%·n1WTI 75%·n2Exa Strait-Of-Hormuz-Maritime-Transit-Risk 75%·n2
·
较上周 60% 回落到 57%。
最稳信号：exa_ai-corporate-borrowing-neutral-rate-risk、exa_fed-inflation-policy-repricing-risk、exa_panama-canal-diverted-trade-logistics-risk；优先用于 regime 判断，而不是单点短线外推。
最弱信号：x_narrative、polymarket_conflict、exa_us-treasury-long-end-term-premium-fiscal-risk；作为噪音/情绪层处理，除非有跨源确认。
本周主要偏差集中在 error_reddit_sentiment / error_yields；下周同类信号进入判断时先降速，不把事件密度直接翻译成价格路径。
auto verified
目标叙事: fed, bonds; 2026-09-07: ❌ top-5 无匹配 [ai, china, openai-apple-lawsuit, iran, hormuz]
auto verified
目标叙事: fed, europe; 2026-09-10: ❌ top-5 无匹配 [ai, iran, inflation, anthropic-valuation-surge, oil]
Threads
bondsfedchinairaninflationteslafear
Source-only threads
Divergence 1
→
供应冲击与高利率并未压低风险资产，股指和比特币同步上涨，而波动率维持低位。 这不是冲击消失，而是宏观后果尚未被股票与波动率充分计入；股指和波动率均为盘前单点观测，缺少当日盘中路径。
BTC
⇄ ⟨ NDX SPX 10Y VIX WTI ⟩ mutual ·0.75
Divergence 2
→
黄金上涨并接近近期高位，但股票和比特币也上涨，避险与风险偏好信号同时增强。 黄金走强可能更多反映通胀、货币与地缘风险溢价，而非单纯的全面避险；仅凭该组合不能判定系统性去风险。
GOLD SPX
BTC
GOLD ⇄ SPX ·0.75
Divergence 3
→
社交平台情绪转向恐惧，但盘前股票市场继续上涨且波动率没有同步抬升。 散户叙事与市场价格暂时背离，可能反映情绪对政策与战争新闻更敏感，也可能预示尚未进入价格的尾部担忧。
SPX VIX
11 12 Reddit
Divergence 4
→
动量及集中度代理单日走强，但等权相对市值加权代理继续走弱，市场上涨的广度基础偏窄。 这些截至9月17日的滞后价格比率仅支持集中领导与弱广度并存，不能升级为拥挤交易平仓或广泛去杠杆判断。
MTUM/SPY MTUM/USMV SMH/QQQ RSP/SPY
Resonance 1
→
原油维持三位数、柴油供应风险获多个来源印证，同时长端利率处于高位，共同指向能源冲击对通胀与期限溢价的持续压力。
10Y WTI
Web intel Web intel Web intel
1 link
10Y ≈ WTI ·0.88
Resonance 2
→
股票上涨、波动率低位且信用利差在截至9月16日的观测中收窄，显示能源与利率冲击尚未转化为广泛风险重定价，金融传导目前仍属受控。
HY OAS IG OAS SOFR−IORB VIX9D
≈ ⟨ NDX SPX VIX ⟩ mutual ·0.86
Resonance 3
→
原始联邦基金期货曲线维持明显上倾，与高油价及高长端利率共同反映偏紧政策路径仍被定价。
10Y WTI Yields (agg)
ZQU26 ZQH27 ZQV27
2 links
10Y ≈ Yields (agg) ·0.80
WTI ≈ Yields (agg) ·0.80
Divergence 1
供应冲击与高利率并未压低风险资产，股指和比特币同步上涨，而波动率维持低位。 这不是冲击消失，而是宏观后果尚未被股票与波动率充分计入；股指和波动率均为盘前单点观测，缺少当日盘中路径。
Members
NDX·629,584.25+0.6%
28,968–29,584
SPX·87,659.25+0.3%
7,555–7,692
10Y·64.95+0.0%
4.95–5.01
VIX·615.44+0.0%
15.4–17.7
WTI·6100.79-0.5%
100.8–105.9
Edges
⇄ ⟨ NDX SPX 10Y VIX WTI ⟩ mutual ·0.75
Events
散户矛盾: Reddit fear但SPX涨，散户可能误判
criticalanomalyfreshnew shocksentiment
SPX
Positioning
AAIIBull 38% · Bear 39.3% · Neutral 22.7% as of 2026-09-12
S&P 500净多 912,361 L 1,153,305 / S 240,944 as of 2026-09-08
Crude Oil净空 9,687 L 14,482 / S 24,169 as of 2026-09-08
Analyst dist.82% Buy Hold 51 · Sell/Strong Sell 10 · 331 ratings · recommendations 7/7 · targets 7/7 · snapshot, not actions target +18.0% as of 2026-09-06
policy path unchanged · 3.75% → —% · next FOMC Oct 28
full policy path
Fed Funds FuturesZQ policy-rate path + target-range tree
2026-09-18 06:31 UTC
SEP 263.748%0.0bp d/d
OCT 263.895%0.0bp d/d
DEC 264.155%+0.5bp d/d
APR 28—%baseline
mode 4.00–4.25% · 56.0%expected midpoint 4.015%hike 100.0% · cut 0.0%
Target rangeCurrent1 day1 week1 month
3.50–3.75%0.0%0.0%6.8%55.7%
3.75–4.00%44.0%44.0%54.3%38.6%
4.00–4.25%56.0%56.0%38.8%5.7%
degraded · zq_pre_meeting_path_differs_from_official_effr · quotes 2026-09-17 (current) · error 0.000bp / tolerance 0.1bp · anchor ZQX26.CBT
ZQ-derived target-rate distribution · delayed estimate · not CME official · ZQ as of 2026-09-17 (current) · EFFR 3.63% as of 2026-09-16 (current)
Divergence 2
黄金上涨并接近近期高位，但股票和比特币也上涨，避险与风险偏好信号同时增强。 黄金走强可能更多反映通胀、货币与地缘风险溢价，而非单纯的全面避险；仅凭该组合不能判定系统性去风险。
Members
GOLD·24,424.20+1.0%
4,306–4,424
SPX·87,659.25+0.3%
7,555–7,692
Edges
GOLD ⇄ SPX ·0.75
Events
散户矛盾: Reddit fear但SPX涨，散户可能误判
criticalanomalyfreshnew shocksentiment
SPX
叙事消退: bitcoin, openai-apple-lawsuit, gold 退出热门
anomalyfreshnew shocknarrative
GOLD
Divergence 3
社交平台情绪转向恐惧，但盘前股票市场继续上涨且波动率没有同步抬升。 散户叙事与市场价格暂时背离，可能反映情绪对政策与战争新闻更敏感，也可能预示尚未进入价格的尾部担忧。
Members
SPX·87,659.25+0.3%
7,555–7,692
VIX·615.44+0.0%
15.4–17.7
Events
散户矛盾: Reddit fear但SPX涨，散户可能误判
criticalanomalyfreshnew shocksentiment
SPX
Divergence 4
动量及集中度代理单日走强，但等权相对市值加权代理继续走弱，市场上涨的广度基础偏窄。 这些截至9月17日的滞后价格比率仅支持集中领导与弱广度并存，不能升级为拥挤交易平仓或广泛去杠杆判断。
Events
no events touch this thread today
Resonance 1
原油维持三位数、柴油供应风险获多个来源印证，同时长端利率处于高位，共同指向能源冲击对通胀与期限溢价的持续压力。
Members
10Y·64.95+0.0%
4.95–5.01
WTI·6100.79-0.5%
100.8–105.9
Edges
10Y ≈ WTI ·0.88
Events
no events touch this thread today
Positioning
AAIIBull 38% · Bear 39.3% · Neutral 22.7% as of 2026-09-12
S&P 500净多 912,361 L 1,153,305 / S 240,944 as of 2026-09-08
Crude Oil净空 9,687 L 14,482 / S 24,169 as of 2026-09-08
Analyst dist.82% Buy Hold 51 · Sell/Strong Sell 10 · 331 ratings · recommendations 7/7 · targets 7/7 · snapshot, not actions target +18.0% as of 2026-09-06
policy path unchanged · 3.75% → —% · next FOMC Oct 28
full policy path
Fed Funds FuturesZQ policy-rate path + target-range tree
2026-09-18 06:31 UTC
SEP 263.748%0.0bp d/d
OCT 263.895%0.0bp d/d
DEC 264.155%+0.5bp d/d
APR 28—%baseline
mode 4.00–4.25% · 56.0%expected midpoint 4.015%hike 100.0% · cut 0.0%
Target rangeCurrent1 day1 week1 month
3.50–3.75%0.0%0.0%6.8%55.7%
3.75–4.00%44.0%44.0%54.3%38.6%
4.00–4.25%56.0%56.0%38.8%5.7%
degraded · zq_pre_meeting_path_differs_from_official_effr · quotes 2026-09-17 (current) · error 0.000bp / tolerance 0.1bp · anchor ZQX26.CBT
ZQ-derived target-rate distribution · delayed estimate · not CME official · ZQ as of 2026-09-17 (current) · EFFR 3.63% as of 2026-09-16 (current)
Resonance 2
股票上涨、波动率低位且信用利差在截至9月16日的观测中收窄，显示能源与利率冲击尚未转化为广泛风险重定价，金融传导目前仍属受控。
Members
NDX·629,584.25+0.6%
28,968–29,584
SPX·87,659.25+0.3%
7,555–7,692
VIX·615.44+0.0%
15.4–17.7
Edges
≈ ⟨ NDX SPX VIX ⟩ mutual ·0.86
Events
散户矛盾: Reddit fear但SPX涨，散户可能误判
criticalanomalyfreshnew shocksentiment
SPX
Resonance 3
原始联邦基金期货曲线维持明显上倾，与高油价及高长端利率共同反映偏紧政策路径仍被定价。
Members
10Y·64.95+0.0%
4.95–5.01
WTI·6100.79-0.5%
100.8–105.9
Yields (agg)weight 0.49
Edges
10Y ≈ Yields (agg) ·0.80
WTI ≈ Yields (agg) ·0.80
Events
no events touch this thread today
Positioning
AAIIBull 38% · Bear 39.3% · Neutral 22.7% as of 2026-09-12
S&P 500净多 912,361 L 1,153,305 / S 240,944 as of 2026-09-08
Crude Oil净空 9,687 L 14,482 / S 24,169 as of 2026-09-08
Analyst dist.82% Buy Hold 51 · Sell/Strong Sell 10 · 331 ratings · recommendations 7/7 · targets 7/7 · snapshot, not actions target +18.0% as of 2026-09-06
policy path unchanged · 3.75% → —% · next FOMC Oct 28
full policy path
Fed Funds FuturesZQ policy-rate path + target-range tree
2026-09-18 06:31 UTC
SEP 263.748%0.0bp d/d
OCT 263.895%0.0bp d/d
DEC 264.155%+0.5bp d/d
APR 28—%baseline
mode 4.00–4.25% · 56.0%expected midpoint 4.015%hike 100.0% · cut 0.0%
Target rangeCurrent1 day1 week1 month
3.50–3.75%0.0%0.0%6.8%55.7%
3.75–4.00%44.0%44.0%54.3%38.6%
4.00–4.25%56.0%56.0%38.8%5.7%
degraded · zq_pre_meeting_path_differs_from_official_effr · quotes 2026-09-17 (current) · error 0.000bp / tolerance 0.1bp · anchor ZQX26.CBT
ZQ-derived target-rate distribution · delayed estimate · not CME official · ZQ as of 2026-09-17 (current) · EFFR 3.63% as of 2026-09-16 (current)
Events
now·persistent·background
generated 2026-09-18 06:35 UTCsnapshot 2026-09-18 06:31 UTCtemporal context
散户矛盾: Reddit fear但SPX涨，散户可能误判
criticalanomalyfreshnew shocksentiment
SPX
10Y利率高位: 4.95% (≥4.5%)
anomalyfreshnew shockmarket
Exa独立来源验证: 2个事件cluster被多个独立来源确认
watchpointanomalyfreshnew shock
Reddit情绪转变: greed → fear
watchpointanomalyfreshnew shocksentiment
叙事突变: 新增 bonds, fed, china, tesla
anomalyfreshnew shocknarrative
X Narrative
叙事消退: bitcoin, openai-apple-lawsuit, gold 退出热门
anomalyfreshnew shocknarrative
GOLD
+14 earlier
Ukrainian strikes deepen Russian refinery outages, threatening diesel availability
criticalintelIEA; ReutersWTIBrentVIXGoldUSD
Russian and Gulf supply losses squeeze the global diesel market
criticalintelIEA; Anadolu Agency; Daily SabahBrentWTIVIXGoldUSD
Yanbu crude inventories fall near four-year lows, leaving little buffer for prolonged outage
highintelKpler, reported by Hellenic Shipping News WorldwideBrentWTI
U.S. Treasuries lose much of their traditional convenience yield amid fiscal concerns
highintelGate News, reporting research cited by The Economist10YUSDGold
Crusoe raises $3.9 billion in Series F at $30.9 billion valuation to expand AI data centers
highintelReuters; TechCrunchSPXNDXRUTVIX
Nvidia-backed CoreWeave launches $3 billion convertible-debt offering and up to $2.92 billion ATM equity program
highintelReutersNDXSPXVIX10Y2Y
Nvidia commits $2 billion to Brookfield AI infrastructure fund
highintelBloombergNDXSPXVIX10Y
Hyperscaler debt issuance reaches $256 billion year-to-date as projected 2027 capex rises to $968 billion
highintelColumbia Threadneedle InvestmentsSPXNDXVIX10Y2Y
Gartner forecasts global AI spending of $2.7 trillion in 2026, up 49.5% year over year
highintelGartner, reported by CXOTodaySPXNDXRUTVIX
Europe’s depleted gas stocks increase the risk of a more persistent energy-driven inflation shock
highintelReutersWTIBrent10Y2YSPXNDXRUTVIX
Russia extends diesel export restrictions as domestic fuel balances tighten
highintelIEA; OilPrice.com reporting industry and Russian-media sourcesBrentWTIVIXUSD
European diesel supply tightens as ARA inventories remain thin and Saudi Yanbu output is disrupted
highintelIndexBox/ENGINE; Kpler; Goldman Sachs reportingBrentWTIVIXUSD
Freight and trade-flow risks amplify European diesel price volatility
highintelReuters; IndexBox/ENGINE; KplerBrentWTIVIXUSD
August Russian product-export rebound masks a deteriorating diesel mix
highintelReuters; OilPrice.comBrentWTIVIXUSD
UpcomingToday: Quad witching
Market
Equities
SPX·87,659.25+0.3%
7,555–7,692
NDX·629,584.25+0.6%
28,968–29,584
DJI51,880.00+0.2%
51,483–52,851
RUT2,880.20+0.3%
2,858–2,916
Vol
VIX·615.44+0.0%
15.4–17.7
Energy
WTI·6100.79-0.5%
100.8–105.9
Brent103.47-0.6%
103.5–108.6
NatGas2.86-0.1%
2.86–2.94
Metals
GOLD·24,424.20+1.0%
4,306–4,424
Silver67.14+2.1%
63.5–67.1
Copper6.63+0.3%
6.39–6.63
Crypto
BTC77,472+1.1%
75,672–79,450
ETH2,481.06+1.0%
2,398–2,599
FX
DXY100.30+0.1%
99.5–100.3
Credit
HYG78.72+0.0%
78.4–78.7
Rates
10Y·64.95+0.0%
4.95–5.01
2Y4.67+0.0%
4.38–4.74
3M3.96+0.0%
3.93–3.97
2s10s27.00+0.0%
27.0–33.0
Transmission
Credit OASHY 270bp · IG 78bp · BBB 96bp direct · eod as of 2026-09-16
FundingSOFR−IORB -3bp · EFFR−IORB -2bp direct · eod as of 2026-09-16
VIX curve9D 13.39 · 3M 18.55 · 6M 20.3 · 3M/9D 1.39 CBOE · eod as of 2026-09-17
ProxiesHYG/LQD 0.7486 · RSP/SPY 0.2797 proxy, not spread/breadth · stale
Factor rotationMTUM/SPY 0.4014 · MTUM/USMV 3.0971 · SMH/QQQ 0.7820 proxy, not flow/leverage · stale · pre-market as of 2026-09-17
Coverage5 gaps: 3 stale · 2 unavailable credit price stale positioning unavailable real world unavailableequity breadth stale positioning stale
Positioning
AAIIBull 38% · Bear 39.3% · Neutral 22.7% as of 2026-09-12
S&P 500净多 912,361 L 1,153,305 / S 240,944 as of 2026-09-08
Crude Oil净空 9,687 L 14,482 / S 24,169 as of 2026-09-08
Analyst dist.82% Buy Hold 51 · Sell/Strong Sell 10 · 331 ratings · recommendations 7/7 · targets 7/7 · snapshot, not actions target +18.0% as of 2026-09-06
Stakes
Ours
Open Predictions
20260915-00155%due today
FOMC 窗口内（到 2026-09-18 收盘）重定价走久期腿、不走信用腿：10Y 至少一个收盘 ≥5.00%（或 TLT 收盘 <80.30），同时 VIX 收盘不破 20、HY OAS 相对 9/11 的 265bp 扩幅 <15bp（收盘 <280bp）。失败条件：VIX 收盘 >20 或 HY OAS ≥280（滞后重定价转为广泛重定价），或 10Y 全程收盘 <5.00% 且 TLT 收盘全程 ≥80.30（久期腿被吸收、根本没有重定价）。
certainty 55% · weight-context none · reviewability medium
Synthesis 1
20260917-00151%war_supply_shock_lagged_repricing2026-09-22
能源与利率已经充分发出滞胀警报，但股票、波动率和大部分信用渠道仍表现为延后计价，这种分离正是当前机制延续的核心证据，也是未来24至48小时最易断裂之处。
certainty 51% · urgency 29% · activation 6% · weight-context none · role-warning role · missing confirmation · proprio ×1.00 · surprise ×1.00 · reviewability medium · source 2026-09-17
Auto 2
20260911-00242%due today
Polymarket高放量事件“Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept”1周内概率变动超过10个百分点。
certainty 42% · weight-context polymarket_conflict 0.75 · polymarket_economy 0.54 · proprio ×1.00 · surprise ×1.00 · reviewability low · source 2026-09-11 · judgment gpt-5.6-sol/medium · verifier pm_volume
20260917-00240%2026-09-20
新叙事“iran, china”在接下来3天中至少2天保持在X top-5叙事。
certainty 40% · weight-context x_narrative 0.46 · proprio ×1.00 · surprise ×1.00 · reviewability low · source 2026-09-17 · judgment gpt-5.6-sol/medium · verifier narrative_persistence
Scenarios
baseline 55%
未来24至48小时维持选择性定价：油价高位震荡，股指保持韧性，波动率低于压力阈值，信用与融资暂未出现同步恶化证据。
  • WTI维持95至105美元区间
  • VIX继续低于20
  • 主要股指未出现显著下跌
  • 柴油与炼厂供应风险持续，但没有新的大规模中断
escalation 30%
新增供应中断推动油价再上台阶，波动率突破关键水平并拖累股指，滞后重定价开始向更广泛风险资产扩散。
  • WTI升破105美元
  • VIX升破20
  • 标普500盘中跌幅超过1.5%
  • 柴油或海湾供应出现新的可验证中断
de-escalation 15%
供应担忧缓和促使油价明显回落，波动率维持低位且股指走强，但只有持续恢复实物流通才会进一步削弱现行框架。
  • WTI跌破95美元
  • VIX低于16
  • 标普500继续上涨
  • 海运通行、保险条件或炼厂供应出现可验证改善
Market's
Contracts
4.3%Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?related$529K
49.5%Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?→ Resonance 3related$434K
0.7%Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?→ Resonance 3related$375K
50.5%Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?→ Resonance 3related$342K
16.5%Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?related$278K
+10 by volume
0.7%Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?→ Resonance 3related$240K
6.0%Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?→ Divergence 1related$130K
4.0%Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$101K
4.7%Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$60K
10.4%Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$60K
0.7%Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?→ Resonance 1related$53K
3.4%Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?→ Resonance 1related$52K
90.0%Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?related$49K
11.5%Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?→ Resonance 1related$37K
1.9%Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?$37K
policy path unchanged · 3.75% → —% · next FOMC Oct 28
full policy path
Fed Funds FuturesZQ policy-rate path + target-range tree
2026-09-18 06:31 UTC
SEP 263.748%0.0bp d/d
OCT 263.895%0.0bp d/d
DEC 264.155%+0.5bp d/d
APR 28—%baseline
mode 4.00–4.25% · 56.0%expected midpoint 4.015%hike 100.0% · cut 0.0%
Target rangeCurrent1 day1 week1 month
3.50–3.75%0.0%0.0%6.8%55.7%
3.75–4.00%44.0%44.0%54.3%38.6%
4.00–4.25%56.0%56.0%38.8%5.7%
degraded · zq_pre_meeting_path_differs_from_official_effr · quotes 2026-09-17 (current) · error 0.000bp / tolerance 0.1bp · anchor ZQX26.CBT
ZQ-derived target-rate distribution · delayed estimate · not CME official · ZQ as of 2026-09-17 (current) · EFFR 3.63% as of 2026-09-16 (current)
Self
normal·50% over 10 reviews·coldest: Safe Havens
Depth
Temperature
normal
Accuracy 50% (10 reviews)
101 correct40 partial112 wrong253 reviews · 48% strict hit
Domain Accuracy
75%
Energy Supply Disruption
hot · 10 rev
70%
Geopolitical
warm · 10 rev
70%
Volatility
warm · 10 rev
60%
Crude Oil
warm · 10 rev
55%
Prediction Markets
normal · 10 rev
55%
Rates
normal · 10 rev
45%
Social Media Signals
normal · 10 rev
25%
Safe Havens
cool · 4 rev
Attention
×0.70×1.00×1.30
Crypto ×0.85
Rates ×0.87
Commodity ×0.89
Volatility ×1.02
12 domains neutral at ×1.00 — collapsed
Peripheral Vision
3 core · on the regime
corefed inflation policy repricing risk
emergingus treasury deficit duration risk
emergingai capex cloud financing risk
emergingchina demand policy commodity risk
quota 2 · met
Regime Standing
recovered ⟲
strikes
3 wrong in a row impeaches
window
30% floor
no reviews in the 7-day window
Surprise
low
0% · 0 violated · 1 confirmed
37 live·37 total·8 active·29 dormant
16 error / 19 success / 2 regime
×
error reddit sentiment ×1.00 0% (15)
auto verified
基准: 2026-06-12 SPX=7,444.3 Reddit=unknown; 2026-06-15: SPX=7,527.3 (+1.1%)
✓
success wti supply disruption ×1.10 63% (92)
auto verified
基准: 2026-05-26 WTI=93.62; 2026-05-27: WTI=89.41 (波动4.5%)
✓
success x anomaly vix ×1.10 77% (13)
Success from review
✓
success vix x narrative ×1.10 62% (29)
auto verified
基准: 2026-06-23 NDX=29,714.5; 2026-06-24: NDX=29,886.8 (+0.6%)
Energy Supply Disruption
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Supply Disruption
signal id: supply_disruption
display label: Supply Disruption
0.87 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=40 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
Supply Disruption 0.87
Exa Strait-Of-Hormuz-Maritime-Transit-Risk
signal id: exa_strait-of-hormuz-maritime-transit-risk
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: strait-of-hormuz-maritime-transit-risk
0.53 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=2 · provisional
weekly shift: 0.50 → 0.53
Exa Strait-Of-Hormuz-Maritime-Transit-Risk 0.53
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
X Anomaly
signal id: x_anomaly
source: X / social narrative layer
0.86 reliability weight
role: diagnostic
category: Social Media Signals
reviewed samples: n=23 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
X Anomaly 0.86
X Narrative
signal id: x_narrative
source: X / social narrative layer
0.46 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Social Media Signals
reviewed samples: n=52 · mature
weekly shift: 0.59 → 0.49
X Narrative 0.46
Volatility
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
VIX
signal id: vix
display label: VIX
0.81 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Volatility
reviewed samples: n=59 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
VIX 0.81
Crude Oil
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
WTI
signal id: wti
display label: WTI
0.79 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Crude Oil
reviewed samples: n=84 · mature
weekly shift: 0.78 → 0.82
WTI 0.79
Brent
signal id: brent
display label: Brent
0.60 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Crude Oil
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
Brent 0.60
Exa Global-Oil-Supply-Price-Dislocation
signal id: exa_global-oil-supply-price-dislocation
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: global-oil-supply-price-dislocation
0.56 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Crude Oil
reviewed samples: n=6 · developing
weekly shift: 0.54 → 0.57
Exa Global-Oil-Supply-Price-Dislocation 0.56
Prediction Markets
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Polymarket Conflict
signal id: polymarket_conflict
source: Polymarket signal bucket
0.74 reliability weight
role: event-pricing
category: Prediction Markets
reviewed samples: n=56 · mature
weekly shift: 0.74 → 0.75
Polymarket Conflict 0.74
Polymarket Economy
signal id: polymarket_economy
source: Polymarket signal bucket
0.55 reliability weight
role: event-pricing
category: Prediction Markets
reviewed samples: n=18 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
Polymarket Economy 0.55
Geopolitical
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Geopolitical Escalation
signal id: geopolitical_escalation
display label: Geopolitical Escalation
0.70 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Geopolitical
reviewed samples: n=73 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
Geopolitical Escalation 0.70
Exa Crossvalidated
signal id: exa_crossvalidated
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: crossvalidated
0.63 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Geopolitical
reviewed samples: n=23 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Crossvalidated 0.63
Positioning
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
COT Positioning
signal id: cta_positioning
display label: COT Positioning
0.60 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Positioning
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
COT Positioning 0.60
Equity Indices
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
SPX
signal id: spx
display label: SPX
0.60 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Equity Indices
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
SPX 0.60
NDX
signal id: ndx
display label: NDX
0.50 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Equity Indices
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
NDX 0.50
RUT
signal id: rut
display label: RUT
0.50 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Equity Indices
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
RUT 0.50
DJI
signal id: dji
display label: DJI
0.40 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Equity Indices
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
DJI 0.40
Shipping Logistics
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Exa Panama-Canal-Diverted-Trade-Logistics-Risk
signal id: exa_panama-canal-diverted-trade-logistics-risk
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: panama-canal-diverted-trade-logistics-risk
0.52 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Shipping Logistics
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: 0.50 → 0.52
Exa Panama-Canal-Diverted-Trade-Logistics-Risk 0.52
Rates
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Exa Japan-Yields-Yen-Global-Duration-Spillover
signal id: exa_japan-yields-yen-global-duration-spillover
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: japan-yields-yen-global-duration-spillover
0.51 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=2 · provisional
weekly shift: 0.50 → 0.51
Exa Japan-Yields-Yen-Global-Duration-Spillover 0.51
10Y
signal id: us10y
display label: 10Y
0.50 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
10Y 0.50
2s10s
signal id: spread_2s10s
display label: 2s10s
0.50 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
2s10s 0.50
Exa Fed-Inflation-Policy-Repricing-Risk
signal id: exa_fed-inflation-policy-repricing-risk
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: fed-inflation-policy-repricing-risk
0.50 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Fed-Inflation-Policy-Repricing-Risk 0.50
Yields (agg)
signal id: yields
display label: Yields (agg)
0.49 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=13 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
Yields (agg) 0.49
2Y
signal id: us2y
display label: 2Y
0.40 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
2Y 0.40
3M
signal id: us3m
display label: 3M
0.30 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
3M 0.30
Credit
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
HYG
signal id: hyg_price
display label: HYG
0.50 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Credit
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
HYG 0.50
Safe Havens
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
GOLD
signal id: gold
display label: GOLD
0.50 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Safe Havens
reviewed samples: n=4 · developing
weekly shift: no material move
GOLD 0.50
Natural Gas
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
NatGas
signal id: natgas
display label: NatGas
0.40 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Natural Gas
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
NatGas 0.40
Equity Fundamentals
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Analyst Consensus
signal id: analyst_forecast
display label: Analyst Consensus
0.40 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Equity Fundamentals
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
Analyst Consensus 0.40
Change
Memory
196
2026-08-19War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverX Narrative +0.10
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events6
20+210
2026-08-20War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverX Narrative +0.10
births / deaths+2 / −0
fore events10
215
2026-08-21War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverX Narrative +0.10
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events5
225
2026-08-22War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverX Narrative +0.10
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events5
23
2026-08-23War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverX Narrative +0.10
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events0
24···
2026-08-24War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverX Narrative +0.10
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events3
255
2026-08-25War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverX Narrative +0.10
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events5
26+25
2026-08-26War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverX Narrative +0.10
births / deaths+2 / −0
fore events5
275
2026-08-27War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverX Narrative +0.05
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events5
288
2026-08-28War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverWTI +0.03
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events8
294
2026-08-29War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverWTI +0.06
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events4
30···
2026-08-30War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverWTI +0.06
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events3
31···
2026-08-31War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverWTI +0.06
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events3
19
2026-09-01War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverX Narrative -0.05
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events9
26
2026-09-02War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverX Narrative -0.05
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events6
36
2026-09-03War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverWTI +0.05
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events6
4+2−45
2026-09-04War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverWTI +0.06
births / deaths+2 / −4
fore events5
54
2026-09-05War Supply Shock Selective Repricing
top moverWTI +0.06
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events4
6·
2026-09-06War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing switched
top moverWTI +0.06
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events1
War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
7+2−1
2026-09-07War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverExa Global-Oil-Supply-Price-Dislocation +0.07
births / deaths+2 / −1
fore events0
8··
2026-09-08War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverX Narrative -0.10
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events2
95
2026-09-09War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverX Narrative -0.10
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events5
107
2026-09-10War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverX Narrative -0.15
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events7
11+27
2026-09-11War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverX Narrative -0.10
births / deaths+2 / −0
fore events7
125
2026-09-12War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverX Narrative -0.10
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events5
13·
2026-09-13War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverX Narrative -0.08
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events1
146
2026-09-14War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverWTI +0.06
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events6
154
2026-09-15War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverWTI +0.06
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events4
16·
2026-09-16War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverX Anomaly +0.05
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events1
174
2026-09-17War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverX Narrative -0.08
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events4
186
2026-09-18War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverX Narrative -0.13
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events6
tap a day for its keyframe
Growth
2026-09-11
+ born
Exa Panama-Canal-Diverted-Trade-Logistics-Risk
+ born
Exa Fed-Inflation-Policy-Repricing-Risk
this week
·
Weekly trend: 战争供应冲击下的滞后风险重定价
Δ
X Narrative
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.59→0.49
WTI
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.78→0.82
Exa Strait-Of-Hormuz-Maritime-Transit-Risk
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.50→0.53
Exa Global-Oil-Supply-Price-Dislocation
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.54→0.57
Exa Panama-Canal-Diverted-Trade-Logistics-Risk
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.50→0.52
Polymarket Conflict
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.74→0.75
Exa Us-Treasury-Long-End-Term-Premium-Fiscal-Risk
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.52→0.53
Exa Japan-Yields-Yen-Global-Duration-Spillover
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.50→0.51
·
Best:Exa Ai-Corporate-Borrowing-Neutral-Rate-Risk 100%·n1Exa Fed-Inflation-Policy-Repricing-Risk 100%·n1Exa Panama-Canal-Diverted-Trade-Logistics-Risk 100%·n1Exa Global-Oil-Supply-Price-Dislocation 75%·n2Exa Japan-Yields-Yen-Global-Duration-Spillover 75%·n2Worst:X Narrative 0%·n2Polymarket Conflict 50%·n1Exa Us-Treasury-Long-End-Term-Premium-Fiscal-Risk 50%·n1WTI 75%·n2Exa Strait-Of-Hormuz-Maritime-Transit-Risk 75%·n2
·
较上周 60% 回落到 57%。
最稳信号：exa_ai-corporate-borrowing-neutral-rate-risk、exa_fed-inflation-policy-repricing-risk、exa_panama-canal-diverted-trade-logistics-risk；优先用于 regime 判断，而不是单点短线外推。
最弱信号：x_narrative、polymarket_conflict、exa_us-treasury-long-end-term-premium-fiscal-risk；作为噪音/情绪层处理，除非有跨源确认。
本周主要偏差集中在 error_reddit_sentiment / error_yields；下周同类信号进入判断时先降速，不把事件密度直接翻译成价格路径。
auto verified
目标叙事: fed, bonds; 2026-09-07: ❌ top-5 无匹配 [ai, china, openai-apple-lawsuit, iran, hormuz]
auto verified
目标叙事: fed, europe; 2026-09-10: ❌ top-5 无匹配 [ai, iran, inflation, anthropic-valuation-surge, oil]
generated by signals · not investment advice