Worldview
2026-07-21 13:36 UTC
← 战争供应冲击下的滞后重定价 · switched 2026-07-20
Supply Shock + Rates/Credit Decoupling
供给冲击向利率 / 信用通道脱钩
今日最重要的跨信号是，真实油运冲击已经推高原油、远端政策路径和长端收益率，却仍被股市、波动率及信用价格代理隔离，因此现行利率—信用脱钩框架继续成立，但其脆弱点正在集中领导和偏弱广度中累积。关键背离是：重大油运冲击与高油价没有引发股票波动率上升，反而出现股指上涨、VIX下降。
38 signals·8 threads·4 patterns·1 open predictions
baseline 57escalation 28de-escalation 15
Tension
重大油运冲击与高油价没有引发股票波动率上升，反而出现股指上涨、VIX下降。
市场目前把冲击主要隔离在能源、通胀和利率渠道，而非立即重估企业整体风险；这支持选择性传导，但也意味着一旦VIX与股指转弱，脱钩可能迅速失效。
Contradictionsfrom threads
⚡
头部成长与动量代理走强，但等权相对市值加权代理走弱，指数强势缺乏同等程度的广度确认。
这不是广泛去杠杆，而是集中领导与内部广度分化；若领导板块随后转弱，指数对冲击的表面韧性可能比当前点位显示的更脆弱。
⚡
截至7月17日的直接信用利差小幅走阔，但7月21日实时HYG/LQD价格代理改善。
两者属于不同日期和不同模态，不能把ETF价格比率改善等同于利差收窄。直接利差资料较滞后，因此信用传导判断只能是受控但证据不完整，不能断言当日信用利差平静。
⚡
Reddit情绪偏恐惧，但SPX、NDX、BTC均较前一交易日上涨。
散户恐惧更集中于原油供应与生活成本，而非已经转化为广泛风险资产抛售；BTC在最近采样区间出现由升转跌，但相对前一交易日仍上涨1.7%。
Contradiction topologyfrom threads
D1Divergence 1·0.75→
D4Divergence 4·0.75→
Divergencefrom stakes
Bond market vs prediction market2026-07 +25bp
ZQ 18.0%Polymarket 7.5%gap +10.5pp
ZQ prices the hike ~2.4× higher than PM · as of 2026-07-21 13:32 UTC · ZQ = tree-derived adjacent transition, treat gap as indicative
Worst signals · 2026-07-13 — 2026-07-18from change
Worst:X Narrative 0%·n1Exa War-Risk-Marine-Insurance-Repricing 50%·n1Exa Qatar-Lng-Export-Disruption 50%·n1Exa Gulf-Naval-Escort-Security-Response 50%·n1Geopolitical Escalation 75%·n2
Self
warm · 65% over 10 reviews
Calibrationfrom self
Temperature
warm
Accuracy 65% (10 reviews)
90 correct27 partial106 wrong223 reviews · 46% strict hit
Domain Accuracy
80%
Energy Supply Disruption
hot · 10 rev
75%
Geopolitical
hot · 10 rev
75%
Volatility
hot · 10 rev
70%
Crude Oil
warm · 10 rev
65%
Rates
warm · 10 rev
55%
Social Media Signals
normal · 10 rev
50%
Credit
normal · 10 rev
40%
Safe Havens
normal · 5 rev
Attention
×0.70×1.00×1.30
Crypto ×0.85
Rates ×0.87
Equity ×0.90
Volatility ×1.02
11 domains neutral at ×1.00 — collapsed
Peripheral Vision
4 core · on the regime
coreus iran retaliation escalation
emerginggulf maritime policy sanctions
emergingai valuation commercialization litigation
quota 2 · met
Regime Standing
recovered ⟲
strikes
3 wrong in a row impeaches
window
30% floor
100%
1 review
Surprise
low
0% · 0 violated · 2 confirmed
33 live·33 total·8 active·25 dormant
15 error / 16 success / 2 regime
×
error reddit sentiment ×1.00 0% (15)
auto verified
基准: 2026-06-12 SPX=7,444.3 Reddit=unknown; 2026-06-15: SPX=7,527.3 (+1.1%)
✓
success wti supply disruption ×1.10 63% (75)
auto verified
基准: 2026-05-26 WTI=93.62; 2026-05-27: WTI=89.41 (波动4.5%)
×
error yields ×1.00 36% (11)
auto verified
基准: 2026-06-17 2s10s=61bps; 2026-06-22: 2s10s=60bps
✓
success x anomaly vix ×1.10 77% (11)
auto verified
基准: 2026-07-12 VIX=15.03 SPX=7,620.3; 2026-07-13: VIX=17.16 (+14.2%) SPX波动0.9%
Energy Supply Disruption
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Supply Disruption
signal id: supply_disruption
display label: Supply Disruption
1.00 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=40 · mature
weekly shift: 0.90 → 1.00
Supply Disruption 1.00
Exa Shipping-Insurance-Freight-Dislocation
signal id: exa_shipping-insurance-freight-dislocation
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: shipping-insurance-freight-dislocation
0.61 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=16 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Shipping-Insurance-Freight-Dislocation 0.61
Exa Gulf-Hormuz-Escalation
signal id: exa_gulf-hormuz-escalation
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: gulf-hormuz-escalation
0.60 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=16 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Gulf-Hormuz-Escalation 0.60
Exa Refinery-Outage-Throughput-Cuts
signal id: exa_refinery-outage-throughput-cuts
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: refinery-outage-throughput-cuts
0.59 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=14 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Refinery-Outage-Throughput-Cuts 0.59
Exa Strait-Of-Hormuz-Shipping-Disruption
signal id: exa_strait-of-hormuz-shipping-disruption
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: strait-of-hormuz-shipping-disruption
0.58 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=4 · developing
weekly shift: 0.52 → 0.56
Exa Strait-Of-Hormuz-Shipping-Disruption 0.58
Exa Gulf-Energy-Infrastructure-Strike-Risk
signal id: exa_gulf-energy-infrastructure-strike-risk
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: gulf-energy-infrastructure-strike-risk
0.56 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=3 · developing
weekly shift: 0.50 → 0.54
Exa Gulf-Energy-Infrastructure-Strike-Risk 0.56
Exa Energy-Infrastructure-Strikes
signal id: exa_energy-infrastructure-strikes
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: energy-infrastructure-strikes
0.55 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=12 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Energy-Infrastructure-Strikes 0.55
Exa Sovereign-Energy-Export-Restrictions
signal id: exa_sovereign-energy-export-restrictions
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: sovereign-energy-export-restrictions
0.54 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=11 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Sovereign-Energy-Export-Restrictions 0.54
Exa Gulf-Maritime-Policy-Sanctions
signal id: exa_gulf-maritime-policy-sanctions
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: gulf-maritime-policy-sanctions
0.52 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Gulf-Maritime-Policy-Sanctions 0.52
Exa War-Risk-Marine-Insurance-Repricing
signal id: exa_war-risk-marine-insurance-repricing
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: war-risk-marine-insurance-repricing
0.52 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: 0.50 → 0.52
Exa War-Risk-Marine-Insurance-Repricing 0.52
Exa Qatar-Lng-Export-Disruption
signal id: exa_qatar-lng-export-disruption
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: qatar-lng-export-disruption
0.52 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: 0.50 → 0.52
Exa Qatar-Lng-Export-Disruption 0.52
Exa Policy-Fuel-Intervention-Response
signal id: exa_policy-fuel-intervention-response
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: policy-fuel-intervention-response
0.51 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=3 · developing
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Policy-Fuel-Intervention-Response 0.51
Crude Oil
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
WTI
signal id: wti
display label: WTI
0.99 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Crude Oil
reviewed samples: n=71 · mature
weekly shift: 0.88 → 1.00
WTI 0.99
Brent
signal id: brent
display label: Brent
0.60 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Crude Oil
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
Brent 0.60
Volatility
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
VIX
signal id: vix
display label: VIX
0.90 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Volatility
reviewed samples: n=57 · mature
weekly shift: 0.82 → 0.92
VIX 0.90
Exa Wti-Vix-Followthrough-Confirmation
signal id: exa_wti-vix-followthrough-confirmation
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: wti-vix-followthrough-confirmation
0.52 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Volatility
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Wti-Vix-Followthrough-Confirmation 0.52
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
X Anomaly
signal id: x_anomaly
source: X / social narrative layer
0.86 reliability weight
role: diagnostic
category: Social Media Signals
reviewed samples: n=22 · mature
weekly shift: 0.82 → 0.87
X Anomaly 0.86
X Narrative
signal id: x_narrative
source: X / social narrative layer
0.50 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Social Media Signals
reviewed samples: n=40 · mature
weekly shift: 0.56 → 0.51
X Narrative 0.50
Geopolitical
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Exa Crossvalidated
signal id: exa_crossvalidated
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: crossvalidated
0.72 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Geopolitical
reviewed samples: n=23 · mature
weekly shift: 0.68 → 0.78
Exa Crossvalidated 0.72
Geopolitical Escalation
signal id: geopolitical_escalation
display label: Geopolitical Escalation
0.67 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Geopolitical
reviewed samples: n=72 · mature
weekly shift: 0.62 → 0.67
Geopolitical Escalation 0.67
Credit
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Exa Credit-Funding-Stress
signal id: exa_credit-funding-stress
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: credit-funding-stress
0.63 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Credit
reviewed samples: n=19 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Credit-Funding-Stress 0.63
HYG
signal id: hyg_price
display label: HYG
0.50 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Credit
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
HYG 0.50
Positioning
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
COT Positioning
signal id: cta_positioning
display label: COT Positioning
0.61 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Positioning
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
COT Positioning 0.61
Equity Indices
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
SPX
signal id: spx
display label: SPX
0.60 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Equity Indices
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
SPX 0.60
NDX
signal id: ndx
display label: NDX
0.50 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Equity Indices
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
NDX 0.50
RUT
signal id: rut
display label: RUT
0.50 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Equity Indices
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
RUT 0.50
DJI
signal id: dji
display label: DJI
0.40 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Equity Indices
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
DJI 0.40
Rates
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Exa Us-Rates-Financial-Conditions-Repricing
signal id: exa_us-rates-financial-conditions-repricing
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: us-rates-financial-conditions-repricing
0.54 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=2 · provisional
weekly shift: 0.50 → 0.54
Exa Us-Rates-Financial-Conditions-Repricing 0.54
Exa Us-Treasury-Yields-Fed-Repricing
signal id: exa_us-treasury-yields-fed-repricing
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: us-treasury-yields-fed-repricing
0.52 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Us-Treasury-Yields-Fed-Repricing 0.52
10Y
signal id: us10y
display label: 10Y
0.50 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
10Y 0.50
2s10s
signal id: spread_2s10s
display label: 2s10s
0.50 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
2s10s 0.50
Yields (agg)
signal id: yields
display label: Yields (agg)
0.46 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=13 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
Yields (agg) 0.46
2Y
signal id: us2y
display label: 2Y
0.40 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
2Y 0.40
3M
signal id: us3m
display label: 3M
0.30 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
3M 0.30
Safe Havens
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Exa Gold-Safe-Haven-Demand
signal id: exa_gold-safe-haven-demand
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: gold-safe-haven-demand
0.52 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Safe Havens
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Gold-Safe-Haven-Demand 0.52
GOLD
signal id: gold
display label: GOLD
0.49 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Safe Havens
reviewed samples: n=4 · developing
weekly shift: no material move
GOLD 0.49
Natural Gas
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
NatGas
signal id: natgas
display label: NatGas
0.40 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Natural Gas
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
NatGas 0.40
Equity Fundamentals
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Analyst Consensus
signal id: analyst_forecast
display label: Analyst Consensus
0.40 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Equity Fundamentals
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
Analyst Consensus 0.40
Open predictionsfrom stakes
Synthesis 1
20260721-00148%geopolitical_supply_shock_rates_credit_decoupling2026-07-24
未来3个交易日继续验证这条结构判断的趋势延续：供应冲击正在抬高油价、长端利率和短期事件保险需求，但尚未穿透信用、融资与大盘权益，当前最关键的变化风险是这种利率—信用脱钩突然断裂。
certainty 48% · urgency 9% · activation 6% · weight-context none · proprio ×1.00 · surprise ×1.00 · reviewability medium · source 2026-07-21 · gpt-5.6-sol
Growth
Supply Shock + Rates/Credit Decoupling
Memoryfrom change
215
2026-06-21Deescalation Risk Premium Unwind
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events5
2313
2026-06-23Deescalation Risk Premium Unwind
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events13
2417
2026-06-24Deescalation Risk Premium Unwind
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events17
2614
2026-06-26Supply Shock Rates Growth Derating Without Commodity Confirmation switched
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events14
Supply Shock Rates Growth Derating Without Commodity Confirmation
2811
2026-06-28Physical Disruption Policy Buffer Credit Leakage switched
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events11
294
2026-06-29Physical Disruption Policy Buffer Credit Leakage
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events4
114
2026-07-01Geopolitical Fade Duration Pressure Selective Leakage switched
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events14
25
2026-07-02Geopolitical Fade Duration Pressure Selective Leakage
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events5
35
2026-07-03Geopolitical Fade Duration Pressure Selective Leakage
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events5
413
2026-07-04Geopolitical Fade Duration Pressure Selective Leakage
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events13
510
2026-07-05Geopolitical Fade Duration Pressure Selective Leakage
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events10
612
2026-07-06Physical Disruption Policy Buffer Credit Leakage switched
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events12
Physical Disruption Policy Buffer Credit Leakage
816
2026-07-08Physical Disruption Policy Buffer Credit Leakage
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events16
910
2026-07-09Deescalation Risk Premium Unwind switched
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events10
1013
2026-07-10Physical Disruption Policy Buffer Credit Leakage switched
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events13
116
2026-07-11Physical Disruption Policy Buffer Credit Leakage
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events6
12+314
2026-07-12War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing switched
top mover—
births / deaths+3 / −0
fore events14
War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
13−313
2026-07-13War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −3
fore events13
149
2026-07-14War Supply Shock Selective Repricing switched
top moverWTI +0.21
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events9
15+313
2026-07-15Geopolitical Supply Shock Rates Credit Decoupling switched
top moverWTI +0.21
births / deaths+3 / −0
fore events13
16+1−16
2026-07-16Geopolitical Supply Shock Rates Credit Decoupling
top moverWTI +0.27
births / deaths+1 / −1
fore events6
17−311
2026-07-17Geopolitical Supply Shock Rates Credit Decoupling
top moverWTI +0.22
births / deaths+0 / −3
fore events11
189
2026-07-18War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing switched
top moverWTI +0.21
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events9
War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
196
2026-07-19War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverWTI +0.16
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events6
207
2026-07-20Geopolitical Supply Shock Rates Credit Decoupling switched
top moverWTI +0.21
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events7
21+28
2026-07-21Geopolitical Supply Shock Rates Credit Decoupling
top moverWTI +0.22
births / deaths+2 / −0
fore events8
tap a day for its keyframe
Growthfrom change
2026-07-21
+ born
Exa Gulf-Maritime-Policy-Sanctions
+ born
Exa Us-Treasury-Yields-Fed-Repricing
2026-07-20
⟲ regime
from 战争供应冲击下的滞后重定价
to 地缘供应冲击下的利率—信用脱钩
2026-07-17
− faded
Polymarket Conflict lived 100d
− faded
Polymarket Economy lived 100d
− faded
Reddit Sentiment lived 99d
2026-07-16
+ born
Exa Gulf-Energy-Infrastructure-Strike-Risk
− faded
BTC lived 14d
2026-07-15
+ born
Exa Us-Rates-Financial-Conditions-Repricing
+ born
Exa War-Risk-Marine-Insurance-Repricing
+ born
Exa Qatar-Lng-Export-Disruption
this week
·
Weekly trend: 地缘供应冲击下的利率—信用脱钩
Δ
WTI
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.88→1.00
VIX
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.82→0.92
Exa Crossvalidated
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.68→0.78
Supply Disruption
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.90→1.00
X Narrative
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.56→0.51
X Anomaly
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.82→0.87
Geopolitical Escalation
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.62→0.67
Exa Us-Rates-Financial-Conditions-Repricing
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.50→0.54
Exa Strait-Of-Hormuz-Shipping-Disruption
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.52→0.56
Exa Gulf-Energy-Infrastructure-Strike-Risk
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.50→0.54
Polymarket Conflict
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.60→0.63
Exa War-Risk-Marine-Insurance-Repricing
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.50→0.52
Exa Qatar-Lng-Export-Disruption
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.50→0.52
Exa Gulf-Naval-Escort-Security-Response
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.50→0.52
·
Best:Exa Crossvalidated 100%·n2Supply Disruption 100%·n2Polymarket Conflict 100%·n1X Anomaly 100%·n1VIX 83%·n3Worst:X Narrative 0%·n1Exa War-Risk-Marine-Insurance-Repricing 50%·n1Exa Qatar-Lng-Export-Disruption 50%·n1Exa Gulf-Naval-Escort-Security-Response 50%·n1Geopolitical Escalation 75%·n2
·
较上周 53% 持平到 53%。
最稳信号：exa_crossvalidated、supply_disruption、polymarket_conflict；优先用于 regime 判断，而不是单点短线外推。
最弱信号：x_narrative、exa_war-risk-marine-insurance-repricing、exa_qatar-lng-export-disruption；作为噪音/情绪层处理，除非有跨源确认。
本周主要偏差集中在 error_reddit_sentiment / error_yields；下周同类信号进入判断时先降速，不把事件密度直接翻译成价格路径。
auto verified
目标叙事: china, nuclear; 2026-07-13: ❌ top-5 无匹配 [iran, hormuz, strait-of-hormuz-shipping-disruption, oil, bonds]
Threads
iranchinaaioilhormuzbondsfear
Divergence 1
→
重大油运冲击与高油价没有引发股票波动率上升，反而出现股指上涨、VIX下降。 市场目前把冲击主要隔离在能源、通胀和利率渠道，而非立即重估企业整体风险；这支持选择性传导，但也意味着一旦VIX与股指转弱，脱钩可能迅速失效。
NDX SPX VIX WTI
Web intel
NDX ⇄ VIX ·0.75
NDX ⇄ WTI ·0.75
SPX ⇄ VIX ·0.75
SPX ⇄ WTI ·0.75
VIX ⇄ WTI ·0.75
Divergence 2
→
头部成长与动量代理走强，但等权相对市值加权代理走弱，指数强势缺乏同等程度的广度确认。 这不是广泛去杠杆，而是集中领导与内部广度分化；若领导板块随后转弱，指数对冲击的表面韧性可能比当前点位显示的更脆弱。
NDX
MTUM/SPY MTUM/USMV SMH/QQQ RSP/SPY
Divergence 3
→
截至7月17日的直接信用利差小幅走阔，但7月21日实时HYG/LQD价格代理改善。 两者属于不同日期和不同模态，不能把ETF价格比率改善等同于利差收窄。直接利差资料较滞后，因此信用传导判断只能是受控但证据不完整，不能断言当日信用利差平静。
HY OAS IG OAS BBB OAS HYG/LQD
Divergence 4
→
Reddit情绪偏恐惧，但SPX、NDX、BTC均较前一交易日上涨。 散户恐惧更集中于原油供应与生活成本，而非已经转化为广泛风险资产抛售；BTC在最近采样区间出现由升转跌，但相对前一交易日仍上涨1.7%。
Reddit
⇄ ⟨ BTC NDX Reddit Sentiment SPX ⟩ mutual ·0.75
Resonance 1
→
霍尔木兹船舶遇袭与通行受阻的实物供应冲击，正同步反映在原油风险溢价和更偏鹰的政策路径中：WTI日内继续上行、较前一交易日上涨2.3%，远期联邦基金利率也普遍上调。
WTI Yields (agg)
Web intel Web intel ZQF27 FOMC 2026-09-16
1 link
WTI ≈ Yields (agg) ·0.94
Resonance 2
→
能源与利率压力尚未扩散为广泛风险资产冲击：SPX和NDX上涨，VIX较前一交易日下降4.4%，HYG/LQD价格比率改善，符合“长端利率承压、信用与大型成长股仍能承受”的脱钩格局。
HYG/LQD
≈ ⟨ NDX SPX 10Y VIX ⟩ mutual ·0.90
Resonance 3
→
股市上涨主要由动量与集中型成长板块驱动，而非全面扩散：MTUM/SPY、MTUM/USMV和SMH/QQQ同步走强，但RSP/SPY下降。
NDX
MTUM/SPY MTUM/USMV SMH/QQQ RSP/SPY
Resonance 4
→
原油、黄金与国债收益率共同处于近期高位，显示市场同时定价供应通胀、地缘避险和期限溢价，而非单纯的增长乐观。
≈ ⟨ GOLD 10Y 2Y WTI ⟩ mutual ·0.83
Divergence 1
重大油运冲击与高油价没有引发股票波动率上升，反而出现股指上涨、VIX下降。 市场目前把冲击主要隔离在能源、通胀和利率渠道，而非立即重估企业整体风险；这支持选择性传导，但也意味着一旦VIX与股指转弱，脱钩可能迅速失效。
Members
NDX·829,170.25+1.4%
28,746–29,711
SPX·107,516.25+0.5%
7,480–7,616
VIX·617.83-4.4%
15.7–18.8
WTI·784.37+2.3%
78.5–84.4
Edges
NDX ⇄ VIX ·0.75
NDX ⇄ WTI ·0.75
SPX ⇄ VIX ·0.75
SPX ⇄ WTI ·0.75
VIX ⇄ WTI ·0.75
Events
矛盾验证: 盘中数据表明，真正被快速定价的是原油、黄金和波动率上行，而不是美股系统性回落：SPX 仍在 7,516 附近上涨，说明市场把霍尔木兹/红海的航运与供油冲击更多视为能源链条风险，而非立即压制股指。换言之，Reddit 的恐慌更集中在地缘与油运层面，未必代表当前股票市场已经同等悲观。
criticalanomalyfreshnew shocksentiment
SPX
散户矛盾: Reddit fear但SPX涨，散户可能误判
criticalanomalyfreshnew shocksentiment
SPX
Divergence 2
头部成长与动量代理走强，但等权相对市值加权代理走弱，指数强势缺乏同等程度的广度确认。 这不是广泛去杠杆，而是集中领导与内部广度分化；若领导板块随后转弱，指数对冲击的表面韧性可能比当前点位显示的更脆弱。
Members
NDX·829,170.25+1.4%
28,746–29,711
Events
no events touch this thread today
Divergence 3
截至7月17日的直接信用利差小幅走阔，但7月21日实时HYG/LQD价格代理改善。 两者属于不同日期和不同模态，不能把ETF价格比率改善等同于利差收窄。直接利差资料较滞后，因此信用传导判断只能是受控但证据不完整，不能断言当日信用利差平静。
Events
no events touch this thread today
Divergence 4
Reddit情绪偏恐惧，但SPX、NDX、BTC均较前一交易日上涨。 散户恐惧更集中于原油供应与生活成本，而非已经转化为广泛风险资产抛售；BTC在最近采样区间出现由升转跌，但相对前一交易日仍上涨1.7%。
Members
BTC·366,357+1.7%
63,967–66,357
NDX·829,170.25+1.4%
28,746–29,711
Reddit Sentiment
SPX·107,516.25+0.5%
7,480–7,616
Edges
⇄ ⟨ BTC NDX Reddit Sentiment SPX ⟩ mutual ·0.75
Events
矛盾验证: 盘中数据表明，真正被快速定价的是原油、黄金和波动率上行，而不是美股系统性回落：SPX 仍在 7,516 附近上涨，说明市场把霍尔木兹/红海的航运与供油冲击更多视为能源链条风险，而非立即压制股指。换言之，Reddit 的恐慌更集中在地缘与油运层面，未必代表当前股票市场已经同等悲观。
criticalanomalyfreshnew shocksentiment
SPX
散户矛盾: Reddit fear但SPX涨，散户可能误判
criticalanomalyfreshnew shocksentiment
SPX
Resonance 1
霍尔木兹船舶遇袭与通行受阻的实物供应冲击，正同步反映在原油风险溢价和更偏鹰的政策路径中：WTI日内继续上行、较前一交易日上涨2.3%，远期联邦基金利率也普遍上调。
Members
WTI·784.37+2.3%
78.5–84.4
Yields (agg)weight 0.46
Edges
WTI ≈ Yields (agg) ·0.94
Events
no events touch this thread today
Positioning
AAIIBull 44.9% · Bear 32.9% · Neutral 22.2% as of 2026-07-18
S&P 500净多 21,066 L 25,356 / S 4,290 as of 2026-07-07
Gold净多 309 L 1,172 / S 863 as of 2026-07-07
Crude Oil净空 15,417 L 5,080 / S 20,497 as of 2026-07-07
Analyst81% Buy 342 ratings target +20.3% as of 2026-07-17
Fed Funds FuturesZQ policy-rate path + target-range tree
2026-07-21 13:32 UTC
JUL 263.630%+0.2bp d/d
SEP 263.740%+1.0bp d/d
MAY 274.090%+1.5bp d/d
FEB 28—%baseline
mode 3.50–3.75% · 82.0%expected midpoint 3.670%hike 18.0% · cut 0.0%
Target rangeCurrent1 day1 week1 month
3.50–3.75%82.0%86.0%——
3.75–4.00%18.0%14.0%——
reconciled · quotes 2026-07-20 (current) · error 0.000bp / tolerance 0.1bp · anchor ZQQ26.CBT
Bond market vs prediction market2026-07 +25bp
ZQ 18.0%Polymarket 7.5%gap +10.5pp
ZQ prices the hike ~2.4× higher than PM · as of 2026-07-21 13:32 UTC · ZQ = tree-derived adjacent transition, treat gap as indicative
ZQ-derived target-rate distribution · delayed estimate · not CME official · ZQ as of 2026-07-20 (current) · EFFR 3.63% as of 2026-07-20 (current)
Resonance 2
能源与利率压力尚未扩散为广泛风险资产冲击：SPX和NDX上涨，VIX较前一交易日下降4.4%，HYG/LQD价格比率改善，符合“长端利率承压、信用与大型成长股仍能承受”的脱钩格局。
Members
NDX·829,170.25+1.4%
28,746–29,711
SPX·107,516.25+0.5%
7,480–7,616
10Y·64.61+0.3%
4.54–4.61
VIX·617.83-4.4%
15.7–18.8
Edges
≈ ⟨ NDX SPX 10Y VIX ⟩ mutual ·0.90
Events
矛盾验证: 盘中数据表明，真正被快速定价的是原油、黄金和波动率上行，而不是美股系统性回落：SPX 仍在 7,516 附近上涨，说明市场把霍尔木兹/红海的航运与供油冲击更多视为能源链条风险，而非立即压制股指。换言之，Reddit 的恐慌更集中在地缘与油运层面，未必代表当前股票市场已经同等悲观。
criticalanomalyfreshnew shocksentiment
SPX
散户矛盾: Reddit fear但SPX涨，散户可能误判
criticalanomalyfreshnew shocksentiment
SPX
Positioning
AAIIBull 44.9% · Bear 32.9% · Neutral 22.2% as of 2026-07-18
S&P 500净多 21,066 L 25,356 / S 4,290 as of 2026-07-07
Gold净多 309 L 1,172 / S 863 as of 2026-07-07
Crude Oil净空 15,417 L 5,080 / S 20,497 as of 2026-07-07
Analyst81% Buy 342 ratings target +20.3% as of 2026-07-17
Fed Funds FuturesZQ policy-rate path + target-range tree
2026-07-21 13:32 UTC
JUL 263.630%+0.2bp d/d
SEP 263.740%+1.0bp d/d
MAY 274.090%+1.5bp d/d
FEB 28—%baseline
mode 3.50–3.75% · 82.0%expected midpoint 3.670%hike 18.0% · cut 0.0%
Target rangeCurrent1 day1 week1 month
3.50–3.75%82.0%86.0%——
3.75–4.00%18.0%14.0%——
reconciled · quotes 2026-07-20 (current) · error 0.000bp / tolerance 0.1bp · anchor ZQQ26.CBT
Bond market vs prediction market2026-07 +25bp
ZQ 18.0%Polymarket 7.5%gap +10.5pp
ZQ prices the hike ~2.4× higher than PM · as of 2026-07-21 13:32 UTC · ZQ = tree-derived adjacent transition, treat gap as indicative
ZQ-derived target-rate distribution · delayed estimate · not CME official · ZQ as of 2026-07-20 (current) · EFFR 3.63% as of 2026-07-20 (current)
Resonance 3
股市上涨主要由动量与集中型成长板块驱动，而非全面扩散：MTUM/SPY、MTUM/USMV和SMH/QQQ同步走强，但RSP/SPY下降。
Members
NDX·829,170.25+1.4%
28,746–29,711
Events
no events touch this thread today
Resonance 4
原油、黄金与国债收益率共同处于近期高位，显示市场同时定价供应通胀、地缘避险和期限溢价，而非单纯的增长乐观。
Members
GOLD·34,057.60+1.1%
3,977–4,066
10Y·64.61+0.3%
4.54–4.61
2Y·34.01+0.4%
3.96–4.01
WTI·784.37+2.3%
78.5–84.4
Edges
≈ ⟨ GOLD 10Y 2Y WTI ⟩ mutual ·0.83
Events
no events touch this thread today
Positioning
AAIIBull 44.9% · Bear 32.9% · Neutral 22.2% as of 2026-07-18
S&P 500净多 21,066 L 25,356 / S 4,290 as of 2026-07-07
Gold净多 309 L 1,172 / S 863 as of 2026-07-07
Crude Oil净空 15,417 L 5,080 / S 20,497 as of 2026-07-07
Analyst81% Buy 342 ratings target +20.3% as of 2026-07-17
Fed Funds FuturesZQ policy-rate path + target-range tree
2026-07-21 13:32 UTC
JUL 263.630%+0.2bp d/d
SEP 263.740%+1.0bp d/d
MAY 274.090%+1.5bp d/d
FEB 28—%baseline
mode 3.50–3.75% · 82.0%expected midpoint 3.670%hike 18.0% · cut 0.0%
Target rangeCurrent1 day1 week1 month
3.50–3.75%82.0%86.0%——
3.75–4.00%18.0%14.0%——
reconciled · quotes 2026-07-20 (current) · error 0.000bp / tolerance 0.1bp · anchor ZQQ26.CBT
Bond market vs prediction market2026-07 +25bp
ZQ 18.0%Polymarket 7.5%gap +10.5pp
ZQ prices the hike ~2.4× higher than PM · as of 2026-07-21 13:32 UTC · ZQ = tree-derived adjacent transition, treat gap as indicative
ZQ-derived target-rate distribution · delayed estimate · not CME official · ZQ as of 2026-07-20 (current) · EFFR 3.63% as of 2026-07-20 (current)
Events
now·persistent·background
generated 2026-07-21 13:36 UTCsnapshot 2026-07-21 13:32 UTCtemporal context
Multiple Oil Tankers Damaged by Projectile Strikes in the Strait of Hormuz
criticalanomaly+intelfreshnew shockCBS News / UKMTOBrentWTIVIX
X AnomalyExa Gulf-Hormuz-EscalationExa Strait-Of-Hormuz-Shipping-DisruptionExa Gulf-Energy-Infrastructure-Strike-RiskExa Energy-Infrastructure-Strikes
矛盾验证: 盘中数据表明，真正被快速定价的是原油、黄金和波动率上行，而不是美股系统性回落：SPX 仍在 7,516 附近上涨，说明市场把霍尔木兹/红海的航运与供油冲击更多视为能源链条风险，而非立即压制股指。换言之，Reddit 的恐慌更集中在地缘与油运层面，未必代表当前股票市场已经同等悲观。
criticalanomalyfreshnew shocksentiment
SPX
散户矛盾: Reddit fear但SPX涨，散户可能误判
criticalanomalyfreshnew shocksentiment
SPX
Trump Scraps Proposed Strait of Hormuz 20% Shipping Toll for Trade and Investment Deals
highanomaly+intelfreshnew shockTruth Social / Business RecorderBrentWTIUSD
Supply DisruptionExa Shipping-Insurance-Freight-DislocationExa Gulf-Hormuz-EscalationExa Strait-Of-Hormuz-Shipping-DisruptionExa Qatar-Lng-Export-DisruptionX Narrative
10Y利率高位: 4.61% (≥4.5%)
anomalyfreshnew shockmarket
叙事突变: 新增 china, bonds
anomalyfreshnew shocknarrative
X Narrative
auto prediction downgraded — 消退叙事"ceasefire, strait-of-hormuz-shipping-disruption"3天内不会重返top-5 (LLM watchpoint: 仅有X叙事退出top-5这一单通道现象，且“未来3天不会重返”的方向与霍尔木兹航运冲击继续升级的当前综合判断存在未解决张力，不足以写入持久预测。)
watchpointanomalyfreshnew shock
Supply DisruptionExa Shipping-Insurance-Freight-DislocationExa Gulf-Hormuz-EscalationExa Strait-Of-Hormuz-Shipping-DisruptionExa Qatar-Lng-Export-Disruption
auto prediction downgraded — 新叙事"china, bonds"在接下来3天中至少2天保持在X top-5叙事 (LLM watchpoint: “china, bonds”只被单一X叙事异常识别，当前输入没有独立来源或市场机制证据支持其未来3天至少2天保持top-5。)
watchpointanomalyfreshnew shock
+12 earlier
IEA warns of severe threat to global oil supply as Hormuz flows plummet
criticalintelInternational Energy Agency (IEA) / Gulf NewsWTIBrent
Yemen's Houthi Rebels Impose Red Sea Blockade on Saudi Arabia Amid Regional Escalation
criticalintelThe New York TimesBrentWTIVIX
Significant institutional undercapitalization exposed across 4,200 financial institutions
criticalintelFinvexx Analysis of Global Stability Reports
Chemical tanker Stolt Magnesium struck by missile near Oman
highintelInformareWTIBrent
Two oil tankers catch fire after explosions in Strait of Hormuz
highintelReuters / Iran Revolutionary Guards (IRGC)WTIBrent
IMO Coordinates Evacuation Plan for Stranded Vessels in Strait of Hormuz Amid Shipping Group Condemnations
highintelInternational Maritime Organization (IMO) / BIMCO / ICS / Intercargo / IntertankoVIXUSD
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve Plummets to Lowest Level Since 1983 Amid Strategic Program Drawdowns
highintelEgypt Oil & Gas / US Department of EnergyUSDWTIBrent
Anthropic Secures Preliminary Approval for Record $1.5 Billion Copyright Settlement Ahead of $965B IPO
highintelTradingKey / AInvestNDXSPX
Bank of America July Survey Highlights Rising Concerns Over Negative Cash Flow in AI Capex Boom
highintelBloomberg / Bank of America Global Research10YUSDSPXNDX
Expiration of US global tariffs and impending Section 301 levy shifts
highintelDB Research / EY Geostrategic Analysis
Houthi declaration of maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia
highintelAl Jazeera / BBC
分析师集体下调: 7 sells across bellwethers
anomalystalebackground contextanalyst
Analyst Consensus
Upcoming2026-07-23: Initial Jobless Claims
Market
Equities
SPX·107,516.25+0.5%
7,480–7,616
NDX·829,170.25+1.4%
28,746–29,711
DJI52,233.00+0.3%
52,057–52,924
RUT2,966.40+0.4%
2,954–2,993
Vol
VIX·617.83-4.4%
15.7–18.8
Energy
WTI·784.37+2.3%
78.5–84.4
Brent90.95+2.3%
84.4–90.9
NatGas2.87+1.1%
2.84–2.92
Metals
GOLD·34,057.60+1.1%
3,977–4,066
Silver58.92+4.0%
55.8–58.9
Copper6.51+2.7%
6.26–6.51
Crypto
BTC·366,357+1.7%
63,967–66,357
ETH1,935.64+1.9%
1,839–1,936
FX
DXY101.06+0.1%
100.5–101.1
Credit
HYG79.71+0.0%
79.7–79.8
Rates
10Y·64.61+0.3%
4.54–4.61
2Y·34.01+0.4%
3.96–4.01
3M3.72+0.4%
3.69–3.72
2s10s60.00+0.0%
55.0–61.0
Transmission
Credit OASHY 273bp · IG 79bp · BBB 97bp direct · eod as of 2026-07-17
FundingSOFR−IORB -8bp · EFFR−IORB -2bp direct · eod as of 2026-07-20
VIX curve9D 17.78 · 3M 20.4 · 6M 22.2 · 3M/9D 1.15 CBOE · eod as of 2026-07-20
ProxiesHYG/LQD 0.7454 · RSP/SPY 0.2849 proxy, not spread/breadth · live
Factor rotationMTUM/SPY 0.4184 · MTUM/USMV 3.2348 · SMH/QQQ 0.8217 proxy, not flow/leverage · live · regular as of 2026-07-21
Coverage2 gaps: 2 unavailable credit positioning unavailable real world unavailable
Positioning
AAIIBull 44.9% · Bear 32.9% · Neutral 22.2% as of 2026-07-18
S&P 500净多 21,066 L 25,356 / S 4,290 as of 2026-07-07
Gold净多 309 L 1,172 / S 863 as of 2026-07-07
Crude Oil净空 15,417 L 5,080 / S 20,497 as of 2026-07-07
Analyst81% Buy 342 ratings target +20.3% as of 2026-07-17
Stakes
Ours
Open Predictions
Synthesis 1
20260721-00148%geopolitical_supply_shock_rates_credit_decoupling2026-07-24
未来3个交易日继续验证这条结构判断的趋势延续：供应冲击正在抬高油价、长端利率和短期事件保险需求，但尚未穿透信用、融资与大盘权益，当前最关键的变化风险是这种利率—信用脱钩突然断裂。
certainty 48% · urgency 9% · activation 6% · weight-context none · proprio ×1.00 · surprise ×1.00 · reviewability medium · source 2026-07-21 · gpt-5.6-sol
Scenarios
baseline 57%
未来24至48小时内，油价维持高位但不形成新一轮跳升，长端收益率保持压力，VIX仍低于20，成长与集中领导继续支撑指数；传导保持受控，但广度偏弱。
  • WTI维持约82至87美元
  • VIX保持在20以下
  • SPX与NDX维持韧性
  • HYG/LQD价格代理不明显恶化
  • RSP/SPY继续落后于集中型指数
escalation 28%
新增船舶袭击或通行骤降推动油价突破近期区间，波动率升破关键阈值并拖累股指，供应冲击开始由能源和利率扩散至广泛风险资产。
  • WTI或Brent加速突破
  • VIX升破25
  • SPX或NDX较前一交易日显著下跌
  • 信用价格代理转弱
  • 长端收益率继续上冲
de-escalation 15%
航运安全或政策缓冲信号压低供应风险溢价，油价回落、长端收益率下降且VIX维持低位，风险资产上涨广度改善；若WTI进一步跌破75美元，现行框架将被实质性否定。
  • 船舶通行恢复或袭击减少
  • WTI回落至80美元以下
  • 10年期收益率回落
  • VIX降至17以下
  • 等权股票相对表现改善
Market's
Contracts
7.5%Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?→ Resonance 1related$811K
92.0%Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?→ Resonance 1related$739K
26.5%Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?related$471K
75.9%Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?related$309K
78.5%Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?→ Divergence 4related$153K
+10 by volume
11.0%Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$258K
0.9%Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals?$188K
26.4%Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$165K
5.1%Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?→ Divergence 4related$128K
3.5%Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?$109K
3.5%Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?→ Divergence 4related$107K
13.7%Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?→ Divergence 4related$103K
36.5%Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?→ Divergence 4related$97K
87.5%Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?→ Resonance 1related$86K
4.3%Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?related$83K
Fed Funds FuturesZQ policy-rate path + target-range tree
2026-07-21 13:32 UTC
JUL 263.630%+0.2bp d/d
SEP 263.740%+1.0bp d/d
MAY 274.090%+1.5bp d/d
FEB 28—%baseline
mode 3.50–3.75% · 82.0%expected midpoint 3.670%hike 18.0% · cut 0.0%
Target rangeCurrent1 day1 week1 month
3.50–3.75%82.0%86.0%——
3.75–4.00%18.0%14.0%——
reconciled · quotes 2026-07-20 (current) · error 0.000bp / tolerance 0.1bp · anchor ZQQ26.CBT
Bond market vs prediction market2026-07 +25bp
ZQ 18.0%Polymarket 7.5%gap +10.5pp
ZQ prices the hike ~2.4× higher than PM · as of 2026-07-21 13:32 UTC · ZQ = tree-derived adjacent transition, treat gap as indicative
ZQ-derived target-rate distribution · delayed estimate · not CME official · ZQ as of 2026-07-20 (current) · EFFR 3.63% as of 2026-07-20 (current)
Self
warm·65% over 10 reviews·coldest: Safe Havens
Depth
Temperature
warm
Accuracy 65% (10 reviews)
90 correct27 partial106 wrong223 reviews · 46% strict hit
Domain Accuracy
80%
Energy Supply Disruption
hot · 10 rev
75%
Geopolitical
hot · 10 rev
75%
Volatility
hot · 10 rev
70%
Crude Oil
warm · 10 rev
65%
Rates
warm · 10 rev
55%
Social Media Signals
normal · 10 rev
50%
Credit
normal · 10 rev
40%
Safe Havens
normal · 5 rev
Attention
×0.70×1.00×1.30
Crypto ×0.85
Rates ×0.87
Equity ×0.90
Volatility ×1.02
11 domains neutral at ×1.00 — collapsed
Peripheral Vision
4 core · on the regime
coreus iran retaliation escalation
emerginggulf maritime policy sanctions
emergingai valuation commercialization litigation
quota 2 · met
Regime Standing
recovered ⟲
strikes
3 wrong in a row impeaches
window
30% floor
100%
1 review
Surprise
low
0% · 0 violated · 2 confirmed
33 live·33 total·8 active·25 dormant
15 error / 16 success / 2 regime
×
error reddit sentiment ×1.00 0% (15)
auto verified
基准: 2026-06-12 SPX=7,444.3 Reddit=unknown; 2026-06-15: SPX=7,527.3 (+1.1%)
✓
success wti supply disruption ×1.10 63% (75)
auto verified
基准: 2026-05-26 WTI=93.62; 2026-05-27: WTI=89.41 (波动4.5%)
×
error yields ×1.00 36% (11)
auto verified
基准: 2026-06-17 2s10s=61bps; 2026-06-22: 2s10s=60bps
✓
success x anomaly vix ×1.10 77% (11)
auto verified
基准: 2026-07-12 VIX=15.03 SPX=7,620.3; 2026-07-13: VIX=17.16 (+14.2%) SPX波动0.9%
Energy Supply Disruption
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Supply Disruption
signal id: supply_disruption
display label: Supply Disruption
1.00 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=40 · mature
weekly shift: 0.90 → 1.00
Supply Disruption 1.00
Exa Shipping-Insurance-Freight-Dislocation
signal id: exa_shipping-insurance-freight-dislocation
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: shipping-insurance-freight-dislocation
0.61 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=16 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Shipping-Insurance-Freight-Dislocation 0.61
Exa Gulf-Hormuz-Escalation
signal id: exa_gulf-hormuz-escalation
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: gulf-hormuz-escalation
0.60 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=16 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Gulf-Hormuz-Escalation 0.60
Exa Refinery-Outage-Throughput-Cuts
signal id: exa_refinery-outage-throughput-cuts
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: refinery-outage-throughput-cuts
0.59 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=14 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Refinery-Outage-Throughput-Cuts 0.59
Exa Strait-Of-Hormuz-Shipping-Disruption
signal id: exa_strait-of-hormuz-shipping-disruption
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: strait-of-hormuz-shipping-disruption
0.58 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=4 · developing
weekly shift: 0.52 → 0.56
Exa Strait-Of-Hormuz-Shipping-Disruption 0.58
Exa Gulf-Energy-Infrastructure-Strike-Risk
signal id: exa_gulf-energy-infrastructure-strike-risk
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: gulf-energy-infrastructure-strike-risk
0.56 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=3 · developing
weekly shift: 0.50 → 0.54
Exa Gulf-Energy-Infrastructure-Strike-Risk 0.56
Exa Energy-Infrastructure-Strikes
signal id: exa_energy-infrastructure-strikes
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: energy-infrastructure-strikes
0.55 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=12 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Energy-Infrastructure-Strikes 0.55
Exa Sovereign-Energy-Export-Restrictions
signal id: exa_sovereign-energy-export-restrictions
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: sovereign-energy-export-restrictions
0.54 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=11 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Sovereign-Energy-Export-Restrictions 0.54
Exa Gulf-Maritime-Policy-Sanctions
signal id: exa_gulf-maritime-policy-sanctions
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: gulf-maritime-policy-sanctions
0.52 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Gulf-Maritime-Policy-Sanctions 0.52
Exa War-Risk-Marine-Insurance-Repricing
signal id: exa_war-risk-marine-insurance-repricing
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: war-risk-marine-insurance-repricing
0.52 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: 0.50 → 0.52
Exa War-Risk-Marine-Insurance-Repricing 0.52
Exa Qatar-Lng-Export-Disruption
signal id: exa_qatar-lng-export-disruption
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: qatar-lng-export-disruption
0.52 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: 0.50 → 0.52
Exa Qatar-Lng-Export-Disruption 0.52
Exa Policy-Fuel-Intervention-Response
signal id: exa_policy-fuel-intervention-response
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: policy-fuel-intervention-response
0.51 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Energy Supply Disruption
reviewed samples: n=3 · developing
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Policy-Fuel-Intervention-Response 0.51
Crude Oil
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
WTI
signal id: wti
display label: WTI
0.99 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Crude Oil
reviewed samples: n=71 · mature
weekly shift: 0.88 → 1.00
WTI 0.99
Brent
signal id: brent
display label: Brent
0.60 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Crude Oil
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
Brent 0.60
Volatility
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
VIX
signal id: vix
display label: VIX
0.90 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Volatility
reviewed samples: n=57 · mature
weekly shift: 0.82 → 0.92
VIX 0.90
Exa Wti-Vix-Followthrough-Confirmation
signal id: exa_wti-vix-followthrough-confirmation
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: wti-vix-followthrough-confirmation
0.52 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Volatility
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Wti-Vix-Followthrough-Confirmation 0.52
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
X Anomaly
signal id: x_anomaly
source: X / social narrative layer
0.86 reliability weight
role: diagnostic
category: Social Media Signals
reviewed samples: n=22 · mature
weekly shift: 0.82 → 0.87
X Anomaly 0.86
X Narrative
signal id: x_narrative
source: X / social narrative layer
0.50 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Social Media Signals
reviewed samples: n=40 · mature
weekly shift: 0.56 → 0.51
X Narrative 0.50
Geopolitical
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Exa Crossvalidated
signal id: exa_crossvalidated
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: crossvalidated
0.72 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Geopolitical
reviewed samples: n=23 · mature
weekly shift: 0.68 → 0.78
Exa Crossvalidated 0.72
Geopolitical Escalation
signal id: geopolitical_escalation
display label: Geopolitical Escalation
0.67 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Geopolitical
reviewed samples: n=72 · mature
weekly shift: 0.62 → 0.67
Geopolitical Escalation 0.67
Credit
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Exa Credit-Funding-Stress
signal id: exa_credit-funding-stress
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: credit-funding-stress
0.63 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Credit
reviewed samples: n=19 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Credit-Funding-Stress 0.63
HYG
signal id: hyg_price
display label: HYG
0.50 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Credit
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
HYG 0.50
Positioning
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
COT Positioning
signal id: cta_positioning
display label: COT Positioning
0.61 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Positioning
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
COT Positioning 0.61
Equity Indices
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
SPX
signal id: spx
display label: SPX
0.60 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Equity Indices
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
SPX 0.60
NDX
signal id: ndx
display label: NDX
0.50 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Equity Indices
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
NDX 0.50
RUT
signal id: rut
display label: RUT
0.50 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Equity Indices
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
RUT 0.50
DJI
signal id: dji
display label: DJI
0.40 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Equity Indices
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
DJI 0.40
Rates
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Exa Us-Rates-Financial-Conditions-Repricing
signal id: exa_us-rates-financial-conditions-repricing
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: us-rates-financial-conditions-repricing
0.54 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=2 · provisional
weekly shift: 0.50 → 0.54
Exa Us-Rates-Financial-Conditions-Repricing 0.54
Exa Us-Treasury-Yields-Fed-Repricing
signal id: exa_us-treasury-yields-fed-repricing
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: us-treasury-yields-fed-repricing
0.52 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Us-Treasury-Yields-Fed-Repricing 0.52
10Y
signal id: us10y
display label: 10Y
0.50 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
10Y 0.50
2s10s
signal id: spread_2s10s
display label: 2s10s
0.50 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
2s10s 0.50
Yields (agg)
signal id: yields
display label: Yields (agg)
0.46 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=13 · mature
weekly shift: no material move
Yields (agg) 0.46
2Y
signal id: us2y
display label: 2Y
0.40 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
2Y 0.40
3M
signal id: us3m
display label: 3M
0.30 reliability weight
role: market-confirmation
category: Rates
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
3M 0.30
Safe Havens
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Exa Gold-Safe-Haven-Demand
signal id: exa_gold-safe-haven-demand
source: Exa deep-web monitor
monitor: gold-safe-haven-demand
0.52 reliability weight
role: confirmatory
category: Safe Havens
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
Exa Gold-Safe-Haven-Demand 0.52
GOLD
signal id: gold
display label: GOLD
0.49 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Safe Havens
reviewed samples: n=4 · developing
weekly shift: no material move
GOLD 0.49
Natural Gas
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
NatGas
signal id: natgas
display label: NatGas
0.40 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Natural Gas
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
NatGas 0.40
Equity Fundamentals
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Analyst Consensus
signal id: analyst_forecast
display label: Analyst Consensus
0.40 reliability weight
role: predictive-context
category: Equity Fundamentals
reviewed samples: n=1 · provisional
weekly shift: no material move
Analyst Consensus 0.40
Change
Memory
215
2026-06-21Deescalation Risk Premium Unwind
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events5
2313
2026-06-23Deescalation Risk Premium Unwind
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events13
2417
2026-06-24Deescalation Risk Premium Unwind
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events17
2614
2026-06-26Supply Shock Rates Growth Derating Without Commodity Confirmation switched
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events14
Supply Shock Rates Growth Derating Without Commodity Confirmation
2811
2026-06-28Physical Disruption Policy Buffer Credit Leakage switched
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events11
294
2026-06-29Physical Disruption Policy Buffer Credit Leakage
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events4
114
2026-07-01Geopolitical Fade Duration Pressure Selective Leakage switched
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events14
25
2026-07-02Geopolitical Fade Duration Pressure Selective Leakage
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events5
35
2026-07-03Geopolitical Fade Duration Pressure Selective Leakage
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events5
413
2026-07-04Geopolitical Fade Duration Pressure Selective Leakage
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events13
510
2026-07-05Geopolitical Fade Duration Pressure Selective Leakage
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events10
612
2026-07-06Physical Disruption Policy Buffer Credit Leakage switched
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events12
Physical Disruption Policy Buffer Credit Leakage
816
2026-07-08Physical Disruption Policy Buffer Credit Leakage
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events16
910
2026-07-09Deescalation Risk Premium Unwind switched
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events10
1013
2026-07-10Physical Disruption Policy Buffer Credit Leakage switched
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events13
116
2026-07-11Physical Disruption Policy Buffer Credit Leakage
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events6
12+314
2026-07-12War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing switched
top mover—
births / deaths+3 / −0
fore events14
War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
13−313
2026-07-13War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top mover—
births / deaths+0 / −3
fore events13
149
2026-07-14War Supply Shock Selective Repricing switched
top moverWTI +0.21
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events9
15+313
2026-07-15Geopolitical Supply Shock Rates Credit Decoupling switched
top moverWTI +0.21
births / deaths+3 / −0
fore events13
16+1−16
2026-07-16Geopolitical Supply Shock Rates Credit Decoupling
top moverWTI +0.27
births / deaths+1 / −1
fore events6
17−311
2026-07-17Geopolitical Supply Shock Rates Credit Decoupling
top moverWTI +0.22
births / deaths+0 / −3
fore events11
189
2026-07-18War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing switched
top moverWTI +0.21
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events9
War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
196
2026-07-19War Supply Shock Lagged Repricing
top moverWTI +0.16
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events6
207
2026-07-20Geopolitical Supply Shock Rates Credit Decoupling switched
top moverWTI +0.21
births / deaths+0 / −0
fore events7
21+28
2026-07-21Geopolitical Supply Shock Rates Credit Decoupling
top moverWTI +0.22
births / deaths+2 / −0
fore events8
tap a day for its keyframe
Growth
2026-07-21
+ born
Exa Gulf-Maritime-Policy-Sanctions
+ born
Exa Us-Treasury-Yields-Fed-Repricing
2026-07-20
⟲ regime
from 战争供应冲击下的滞后重定价
to 地缘供应冲击下的利率—信用脱钩
2026-07-17
− faded
Polymarket Conflict lived 100d
− faded
Polymarket Economy lived 100d
− faded
Reddit Sentiment lived 99d
2026-07-16
+ born
Exa Gulf-Energy-Infrastructure-Strike-Risk
− faded
BTC lived 14d
2026-07-15
+ born
Exa Us-Rates-Financial-Conditions-Repricing
+ born
Exa War-Risk-Marine-Insurance-Repricing
+ born
Exa Qatar-Lng-Export-Disruption
this week
·
Weekly trend: 地缘供应冲击下的利率—信用脱钩
Δ
WTI
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.88→1.00
VIX
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.82→0.92
Exa Crossvalidated
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.68→0.78
Supply Disruption
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.90→1.00
X Narrative
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.56→0.51
X Anomaly
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.82→0.87
Geopolitical Escalation
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.62→0.67
Exa Us-Rates-Financial-Conditions-Repricing
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.50→0.54
Exa Strait-Of-Hormuz-Shipping-Disruption
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.52→0.56
Exa Gulf-Energy-Infrastructure-Strike-Risk
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.50→0.54
Polymarket Conflict
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.60→0.63
Exa War-Risk-Marine-Insurance-Repricing
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.50→0.52
Exa Qatar-Lng-Export-Disruption
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.50→0.52
Exa Gulf-Naval-Escort-Security-Response
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.50→0.52
·
Best:Exa Crossvalidated 100%·n2Supply Disruption 100%·n2Polymarket Conflict 100%·n1X Anomaly 100%·n1VIX 83%·n3Worst:X Narrative 0%·n1Exa War-Risk-Marine-Insurance-Repricing 50%·n1Exa Qatar-Lng-Export-Disruption 50%·n1Exa Gulf-Naval-Escort-Security-Response 50%·n1Geopolitical Escalation 75%·n2
·
较上周 53% 持平到 53%。
最稳信号：exa_crossvalidated、supply_disruption、polymarket_conflict；优先用于 regime 判断，而不是单点短线外推。
最弱信号：x_narrative、exa_war-risk-marine-insurance-repricing、exa_qatar-lng-export-disruption；作为噪音/情绪层处理，除非有跨源确认。
本周主要偏差集中在 error_reddit_sentiment / error_yields；下周同类信号进入判断时先降速，不把事件密度直接翻译成价格路径。
auto verified
目标叙事: china, nuclear; 2026-07-13: ❌ top-5 无匹配 [iran, hormuz, strait-of-hormuz-shipping-disruption, oil, bonds]
generated by signals · not investment advice